A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
